The Importance of Trusting Economic Indicators

En enero de 2025, la economía de EE. UU. mostró señales mixtas, evidenciando tanto fortaleza como nuevos desafíos en múltiples sectores.

Trends in Business Activity and Employment

El índice S&P Global Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output, que sigue el desempeño de los sectores manufacturero y de servicios, cayó a 52.4 en enero desde 55.4 en diciembre, alcanzando su nivel más bajo desde abril. A pesar de esta desaceleración, el índice se mantuvo por encima del umbral de 50, lo que sugiere que la expansión continúa. Principalmente, el sector servicios contribuyó a este freno, mientras que la manufactura mostró crecimiento por primera vez en siete meses, impulsada por expectativas de regulaciones más flexibles y menores impuestos bajo la actual administración. Cabe destacar que las empresas incrementaron la contratación al ritmo más rápido en dos años y medio, lo que indica optimismo sobre las condiciones económicas futuras.

Confidence and Spending of Consumers

Consumer Confidence and Spending

Monetary Policy and Inflation Expectations

Consumer inflation expectations have increased significantly. According to the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey, expected inflation for the upcoming year rose to 3.3% in January, up from 2.8% in December, reaching its highest point since May. Long-term inflation expectations also rose to 3.3%, the most elevated since June 2008. These elevated expectations might affect actual inflation, as businesses may feel more confident in increasing prices. In reaction to these changes, the Federal Reserve is likely to keep the federal funds rate within the 4.25% to 4.50% target range at its forthcoming meeting, taking a measured stance on monetary policy amid ongoing inflation worries.

Dynamics of the Labor Market

Labor Market Dynamics

Mercados Financieros y Sentimiento del Inversor

Financial Markets and Investor Sentiment

Financial markets have exhibited volatility in response to mixed economic data and corporate earnings reports. Major indexes closed lower, with the technology sector leading the downturn. Strong housing market data contrasted with a slowdown in business activity, while consumer sentiment declined. Investors are closely monitoring these indicators ahead of key economic releases and the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions. The prospect of potential inflation stemming from proposed tariffs has also contributed to market uncertainty. 

You May Also Like

  • Housing crisis in 2024: US home sales decrease

  • The future of tariffs under Trump

  • Top-tier services for reputation management in Atlanta (Georgia)

  • Atlanta’s top SEO firm (Georgia)